Bayesian Inference

Could reason over all parameters that are consistent with the data?

• Weight with a better fit to the training data should be more probable than others
• Make predictins with all these weights, scaled by their probability This is the idea underlying Bayesian inference

Frequentist VS Bayesian "divide"

• Frequenitist: learnin using point estimates, regularisation, p-values
  • backed by sophistivated theory on simplifying assumptions
  • mostly simpler altorithms, characterises much practical machine learning research
• Bayesian: maintain uncertainty, marginalise(sum) out unknown during inference
  • some theory supported (not as complete as frequenitist)
  • often more complex algorithms, but not always
  • often (not always) more compitationally expensive

Bayesian Regression

Apply Bayesian inference to linear regression, using Normal prior over w Bayes Rule:

$$p(\mathbf{w}|\mathbf{X}, \mathbf{y}) = \frac{p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}, \mathbf{w}) p(\mathbf{w})}{p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X})} \\[6pt] \max_{\mathbf{w}} p(\mathbf{w}|\mathbf{X}, \mathbf{y}) = \max_{\mathbf{w}} p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}, \mathbf{w}) p(\mathbf{w})$$

$p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}, \mathbf{w})$ Is the likelihoond function, $p(\mathbf{w})$ is the prior and $p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X})$ is marginal mikelihood

Consider the full posterior

$$p(\mathbf{w}|\mathbf{X}, \mathbf{y}, \sigma^2) = \frac{p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}, \mathbf{w}, \sigma^2) \, p(\mathbf{w})}{p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}, \sigma^2)}$$

A marginal likelihood is a likelihood function that has been integrated over the parameter space
Due to the integration over the parameter space, the marginal likelihood does not directly depend upon the parameters. Marginal likelihood defination

$$p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}, \sigma^2) = \int p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}, \mathbf{w}, \sigma^2) \, p(\mathbf{w}) \, d\mathbf{w}$$

Conjugate prior: when product of likelihood x prior results in the same distribution as the prior

Evidence can be computed easily using the normalising constant of the Normal distribution

$$p(\mathbf{w}|\mathbf{X}, \mathbf{y}, \sigma^2) \propto \text{Normal}(\mathbf{w}|\mathbf{0}, \gamma^2 \mathbf{I}_D) \, \text{Normal}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{Xw}, \sigma^2 \mathbf{I}_N) \\ \propto \text{Normal}(\mathbf{w}|\mathbf{w}_N, V_N) \\[6pt]$$

Where: $\mathbf{w}_N = \frac{1}{\sigma^2} \mathbf{V}_N \mathbf{X}^\prime \mathbf{y} \\ \mathbf{V}_N = \sigma^2 \left( \mathbf{X}^\prime \mathbf{X} + \frac{\sigma^2}{\gamma^2} \mathbf{I}_D \right)^{-1}$ $\mathbf{w}_N$ : Mean Vector $\mathbf{V}_N$ : Covariance Matrix